Trump’s biggest vulnerability is his ego. Once again it will stand between him and the White House. In 2016 it was an anomaly, even entertaining. A nice respite from the same old politico speak we’ve been spoon-fed since the dawn of the TV era, some 60 years previous. By 2020 the electorate was tired of the petulant brat’s performance (brat in the negative sense, not apparently the modern cool interpretation) and yearned to return to normalcy. In 2024, the rants will be even more portentous as Donnie’s ego becomes more desperate in clinging to freedom from incarceration and trying to prevent the cancellation of the President Donald Trump reality show.
Trump doesn’t expand his base, he never has. He panders to it. These are the voters that have embraced his ego and when he feeds them with disinformation, conspiracy theories, oh hell let’s just call them for what they are, lies, he’s feeding his own ego. So, Trump will just dummy down and concentrate on turning out his base. He drives the discourse into such a repugnant and unpalatable fashion that if his opponent decides to engage equally in negative muck the result is Democratic and other never Trumper voters stay home and don’t bother to vote. Turn out dives way down and only Trump’s hard core devotees will turn out to vote.
Trump doesn’t have advisers in the traditional sense. He sees them as employees, paid to do his bidding. When things go south, they can be the scapegoats because Donnie’s ego can do no wrong. Take the VP pick for instance. Donnie thinks Vance is the right choice, whether because Jr. likes JD or Donnie’s ego likes his narrative, makes the choice impetuously at the last second and after the announcement with very little vetting, expects his “advisers” to make it right. For years the media reports how “advisers are trying to moderate Trumps words and performance”; and occasionally when he’s perceived as backed into a corner, Trump will try these tactics whether in a speech or other public event and that is when Donnie exhibits the hostage look. Only to be shortly abandoned.
If you adhere to the pendulum swing in politics, the mere presidency of the first African American, Barack Obama, may have caused a reaction in far-right circles that created the vacuum filled by the Trump presidency. That same reaction, swinging the other way could help create a Harris presidency (after a swing through a Biden center) meaning a drift towards electing the first female president, a woman of color. Obama created Trump; Trump could create Harris.
Before Biden dropped out of the race and the American electorate viewed their president as too old and untrustworthy of performing another 4 years of service, the polls were still within reach with Trump. In addition, when matched between a relatively unknown, undefined vice president of an unpopular president, the polls were still close. This is evidence of Trump’s unpopularity with the electorate as a whole. Outside of his base Donald Trump is woefully distasteful.
The problem with Biden was his age made non Trumpers actually take a look at Trump.
The circumstances for a Kamala Harris presidency as a new fresh player on the field that could break many molds just by the fact of who she is, could prove to pave the way from the Naval Observatory to the White House. Harris must be careful to avoid going down the rabbit hole with Trump. It is a balancing act. She must somehow hold onto the high road while countering his mudslinging. The vice president can do this by articulating her vision of the country for the next four years and how to get there while deflecting Trumps schoolyard distractions.
In 2016 Marco Rubio decided to go toe to toe with the juvenile bully. If you recall Little Marco was not good at it. he came across as inauthentic. Not in the Florida senator’s DNA. The same goes for Ms. Harris.
You don’t want to drive down turn-out with negativity. It only favors Trump. She must capture independent voters and never Trumpers. Give them a home and a reason to go to the polls.
More twists and turns in this election are coming. Vance dumped for RFK Jr.?
Stay tuned, Donnie’s ego will continue to get in the way.