Don’t Criformea Vladimir Putin
Watching wall to wall news coverage last week of The Crisis in Ukraine has been non-stop. Since the first Russian helicopter crossed the Ukranian border apparently the dropping of barrel bombs on innocent citizens in Syria by its own government has ceased, so has it’s program of mass starvation, beheadings by Islamist extremists Al-Qaeda can’t stomach, devastation of whole cities and deaths of countless children all ended the moment the drama in Crimea commenced.
Apparently legally there is little we can do, because of trade considerations there is little the Europeans will do, and in the wake of the disclosure of President Obama’s NSA surveillance program of Angela Merkel’s cell phone and other European leaders and their citizens there is little to no leverage President Obama can exert So what’s the end game?
It is no secret that the exemplar of Presidencies for Obama is John Kennedys. When he walks by Aaron Shikler’s portrait of the 35th president that hangs in Entrance Hall in the White House during troubling periods he wonders what would JFK do. The last time we faced Russia on a path to brinkmanship was the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. There Kruschev’s missiles were parked on our door step and had to be removed. This time the crisis is on Putin’s doorstep. There are no nuclear missiles involved but whenever the Americans and Russians go to dance they are never far away.
Between the 2 superpowers the only pathway to end a crisis is through negotiations. Bravura is good for posturing but in the end it’s negotiations. Like Kennedy dealing with Kruschev, paramount is the 2 leaders walking away from negotiations saving face, each one at least having the appearance if not actually gaining something for their country.
Obama has to be thinking that Crimea is predominately Russian, hell, it used to be part of Russia, if our only option with teeth is military action, which isn’t an option, we lack strong backing by European allies; we know Putin is not Hitler or Stalin, he doesn’t want to own other countries, (the Soviet Union proved it’s way too costly and not worth the effort) therefore Obama is not Chamberlain, we let Russia have Crimea with assurances from Putin that there will be no more meddling, the remaining citizens of Ukraine now consist of a larger Western tilt giving the country more flexibility even holding out the possibility of one day joining the NATO alliance, but if Obama is shrewd he can use this opportunity to go even further.
Putin wins the big prize, Crimea, but to maximize the West’s gains we get irreversible assurances from Putin that he will throw the full weight of the Russian government behind dismantling and shipping out all Syrian chemical weapons and Syrian negotiations resume with the understanding that Bashar al-Assad step down as leader of the Syrian government and the interim Iranian nuclear agreement is fully enforced.
Bravura and posturing for now on our part is all good, also time for cool heads to prevail is a plus but use the mainstream international media to keep the heat on Russia and in the end the Crimean’s and Putin get all that they want and a major step towards Middle Eastern peace that is so desperately needed right now is attained.
Crimea is certainly not the first land grab by a more powerful neighbor but if we could make it the last, at least for a while, it might very well be worth it.